Bitcoin has entered a phase of deep correction, but the moment of reversal can already be calculated. The current decline has a clear structure, which means it is possible to determine when the market will return to growth. This is not about a random drawdown, but about a cyclical process of cleansing, after which a base is formed for a new impulse.
Such thoughts were shared by blogger Coin22 in his new video.
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Decline without an external crisis
Throughout the history of the market, Bitcoin has experienced several major crashes - from -50% to -80%. Almost always, strong triggers stood behind them: exchange collapses, pandemics, regulatory bans, or fund bankruptcies.
Now the picture is different. Stock indices remain stable, gold is not showing panic, there is no global capital flight. This indicates internal reasons for the pressure.
Among them:
● liquidations of leveraged positions of funds;
● outflows from ETFs;
● margin calls on structured products.
This, according to the author's logic, triggered a chain reaction of sell-offs.
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Pressure from derivatives
The market structure has changed significantly in recent years. If earlier the price was formed in the spot market, now up to 70–80% of turnover comes from derivative instruments.
Among them:
• futures;
• options;
• ETF derivatives;
• structural products of banks.
In such a system, the decline is accelerated not by coin sales, but by position liquidations. The lower the price, the more forced closures occur. A cascading effect arises, amplifying the drawdown.
Formally, the emission restriction remains, but synthetic supply through derivatives makes the market more vulnerable.
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Reversal levels
The technical breakdown occurred after breaking through $75,000. Subsequently, the price quickly fell to around $60,000, destroying the upward structure.
Key benchmarks:
• area of interest - around $50,000;
• historical support - 200-week average;
• accumulation range - $60,000–90,000.
At the same time, a positive signal is recorded - an increase in demand from investors in the USA. This reflects the positive Coinbase Premium, which often appears near local minima.
According to the author's assessment, the market may trade sideways for 3–5 months, forming a base for the next impulse.
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What is needed for new growth
To return to an upward trend, a combination of factors is required:
● inflow of capital into spot and ETFs;
● easing of macroeconomics;
● stabilization of geopolitics;
● possible changes in the Fed's policy.
In such a scenario, a return to pre-correction levels is possible by the end of spring - the beginning of summer.
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The role of long-term holders
The final emphasis is on the behavior of market participants. Pressure is increasing due to the dominance of speculative capital, while stability is formed by long-term investors.
It is the holders, according to this logic, who prevent the price from a deeper drawdown. A new cycle will begin after the return of real capital and a reduction in the share of excessive leverage.