Yes

#BTC #ETH

Some thoughts and reflections on the market outlook

After the significant one-sided drop at the end of January, it is impossible for us to continue a one-sided market after taking profits from the short position; the possibility of a one-sided move either upwards or downwards in the short term is very small.

In February and March, the likelihood is high that we will experience a period of fluctuations and corrections, waiting for the volatility to decrease before choosing to move upwards or downwards.

At this point, a better strategy is to abandon one-sided movements and patterns; the profits from fluctuations can also be substantial, but the prerequisite is to avoid greed and actively take profits.

After a few more candlesticks, structural signals will begin to appear; this is when we observe and enter the market. This time, a rebound from the lowest point of 60,000 by 20% is 72,000, and a rebound of 30% is 78,000, which are also relatively valuable reference points.

For long-term BTC, I do not believe that this is the bottom of this bear market; the bottoming process cannot be completed in a short time, and the probability of a sharp bottom is relatively low. From BTC's historical perspective, this position is not the most desperate point for users; when users are most desperate and the market is completely ignored and withering, that is the best time for us to enter and catch the bottom. During this process, maintaining a swing trading approach is sufficient.

At the same time, BTC's four-year cycle has not yet been broken; the cycle is like a heavy truck driving fast; there will be a transition process from rapid driving to complete stop.