Takaichi's victory on February 8, 2026, may generate shockwaves in global markets. This is not just any election; for investors, it represents the most aggressive "massive spending" experiment by a developed power in years.

S&P 500 and Global Equities:

The risk of the "Carry Trade"

Paradoxically, a strong victory in Japan may be bearish for Wall Street in the short term.

The mechanism: Many investors borrow yen at nearly zero rates to invest in U.S. tech stocks (the famous carry trade). If Takaichi's policies drive Japanese bond yields up, that money could return to Japan, forcing sales in the S&P 500 to cover positions.

Winning sectors: If you invest in Japan (Nikkei 225), the defense, nuclear energy, and semiconductor sectors are the big beneficiaries of increased government spending.

Gold $XAU

The refuge against debt

Gold has had a solid rebound, recently surpassing $5,000 (in the context of inflation in 2026).

Debt Factor: Japan has a debt of 235% of its GDP. Takaichi's plan to eliminate consumption taxes and increase military spending scares the bond markets.

Refuge: Investors are using gold as a hedge against the possibility that Japan's fiscal policy (and that of the U.S. with Trump) is unsustainable, weakening fiat currencies against real assets.

Bitcoin and Crypto: Between liquidity and risk

Bitcoin has shown extreme volatility this week (hovering around $60,000, far from its peak of $126,000 in 2025).

Global liquidity: Takaichi's policies are "pro-liquidity" (print/spend money), which historically favors Bitcoin.

The "fear" of the bond: However, if global bond yields rise too quickly to compete with Japanese spending, risk assets like BTC suffer. In the long term, a victory for Takaichi reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" against governments that continue to expand their debt.

Currencies:

The Yen on the tightrope

The USD/JPY pair is under immense pressure.

Weak Yen: The market expects the yen to continue losing value against the dollar, as Takaichi prefers a weak yen to favor exports and does not want the Bank of Japan to raise rates too quickly.

Intervention: Stay alert, because the Japanese Ministry of Finance might intervene as soon as tomorrow to prevent a total collapse of its currency.