What will the BTC trend be like after 2026? The most accurate way may not be to listen to KOLs analyze charts, but to analyze the probabilities given by the Polymarket market. (Long-term operation)

The chart below shows today's PM prediction for the price BTC will reach in 2026.

The positions with the highest betting trading volume can be seen as relatively large support or resistance, as this position has the greatest divergence and is prone to large trading volumes.

There is basically no volume upwards, while the probability downwards is 75% at 55000 (1.03m), 43% at 45000 (1.22m), and 25% at 35000 (1.08m).

From these data, we can easily draw a conclusion.

The bottom in 2026 is very likely not to be 60000; there is a high probability of breaking through 55000 or even 45000, and a relatively small probability of seeing the 30s. The 20s are very small, so we won't discuss that.

Regarding operations, I can only offer a few ideas; everyone should think based on their actual situation.

Based on this probability for betting, half of our position should enter between 55000-45000, then 25% of the position should enter between 45000-35000. The final 25% of the position should be all-in at 35000.

So what about friends who already have positions? At least at this position, your position can only be 50%, with the remaining 25% entering below 50000, and another 25% entering below 40000. This can also provide some buffering effect, but the final part below 35000 cannot be covered.

However, some may say, this decline is not going to happen all at once, so what should we do? We need to place pyramid-style limit orders in the above-mentioned ranges, and if there is a rebound, at least take profits on half, thus averaging the cost through waves.

Writing this operational suggestion is indeed quite difficult, as everyone's situation differs, and risk preferences vary. Everyone should act based on their actual situation and avoid rigidly applying it.