In the long term, the first cryptocurrency could reach $266,000 — the asset is becoming "more attractive than gold," according to analysts at JPMorgan.
The report notes that over the past week, pressure on the market has intensified against the backdrop of weakening risk assets, especially in the technology sector. Traditional defensive instruments — gold and silver — also experienced sharp corrections.
An additional blow to investor confidence was dealt by the hacking of the DeFi platform Step Finance based on Solana, resulting in losses of $29 million.
The recent correction brought the price of Bitcoin below the estimated production cost, which historically served as a 'soft lower boundary.' Experts estimate this figure around $87,000.
If prices remain below this level for a long time, unprofitable miners will start to leave the market. In turn, this will lead to a decrease in production costs, analysts explained.
The drop over the day from ~$73,300 to a local minimum of $60,000 was about 18%.
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In spite of skeptics
Despite the current negativity, JPMorgan maintains a positive long-term forecast.
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'The significant superiority of gold over Bitcoin since October last year, combined with a sharp increase in the volatility of the precious metal, has made the first cryptocurrency even more attractive compared to gold in the long term.'
— analysts stated.
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They emphasized that the volatility ratio of the first cryptocurrency to gold has dropped to about 1.5 — a record low level. This makes Bitcoin 'increasingly attractive.'
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Not this year
According to the model, to achieve parity with private investments in gold (about $8 trillion excluding central bank reserves), the market capitalization of Bitcoin should correspond to a price of $266,000 per coin.
Analysts called this target 'unrealistic' for the current year. However, calculations demonstrate long-term growth potential after a shift in market sentiment when the asset once again becomes an attractive hedging tool for macro risks.
Last November, experts allowed for a rise to $170,000 on the horizon of 6–12 months, based on a comparison with the precious metal adjusted for volatility.
The new benchmark is significantly higher but implies a more distant perspective. The revision of the assessment followed an increase in the bank's long-term gold forecast to $8000–8500.
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Ambiguous situation
Despite the overall weakness of the market, the volume of liquidations in the derivatives markets was lower than in the previous quarter. The deleveraging in perpetual futures was softer compared to the October wave.
Institutional losses on CME have also decreased compared to the previous reporting period.
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ETF
The movement of funds in exchange-traded funds confirms negative sentiment. The ongoing outflow from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs indicates weak demand from both retail investors and institutions.
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Stablecoins
The supply of 'stablecoins' has slightly decreased in recent weeks, reflecting the caution of market participants. However, analysts do not regard this as a signal for capital flight.
Experts call such dynamics a natural reaction to the decline in overall capitalization. Historically, the volume of stablecoins correlates with the market: when prices fall, the ecosystem requires less liquidity.