Current situation (July 24, 2025):
- Price: ~24.92–25.50 USD (based on current data, CoinMarketCap).
- Context: AVAX is the native token of Avalanche, an L1 blockchain launched in 2020 by Ava Labs (Emin Gün Sirer). The platform focuses on scalability (6500+ TPS), low fees, and DeFi/NFT/enterprise solutions. The network consists of three chains: X-Chain (assets), C-Chain (smart contracts), P-Chain (validators/subnets). Market capitalization: ~10–10.5 billion USD (rank ~15–20). Trading volume: ~900 million–1.4 billion USD/24h. Circulating supply: ~422 million AVAX, maximum: 720 million. Price has fallen ~83% from ATH (146.22 USD, November 2021), but has risen ~8–23% over the week (@CoinGecko, @HASOsyalmedya). TVL: ~1–1.5 billion USD. Positive sentiment on X is related to ETF speculation and partnerships (Mastercard, SMBC, California DMV).
Technical forecast for 2026 (based on analytics):
- Prices:
- Optimistic: 60.45–100.00 USD (growth of 150–300%) in a bull market, ETF approval, and growth of DeFi.
- Neutral: 28.62–82.58 USD (growth of 15–230%).
- Pessimistic: 14.02–22.90 USD during correction or regulatory restrictions.
- Levels:
- Support: 20.20–22.06 USD, 12.24–18.50 USD.
- Resistance: 26.50–30.00 USD, 54.18–60.45 USD.
- Trend: Bullish. Daily chart shows an upward trend (RSI ~50–60, 50 MA above 200 MA), weekly confirms (MACD bullish). Breakout at 26.50 USD may signal growth, drop below 20.20 USD — correction. RSI ~20–54, possible reversal from oversold.
Fundamentals:
- Growth drivers:
- Ecosystem: 1000+ dApps (TraderJoe, Pangolin), support for DeFi, NFT, RWA (tokenization of assets, EUROC — 98% of RWA volume).
- Partnerships: Mastercard, SMBC, California DMV (digitization of ownership rights), Clearpool, Xalts, VanEck (ETF).
- Technology: Subnets for custom blockchains, Avalanche 9000 (scalability), integration with Solana via Wormhole.
- Community: Positive sentiment on X (@HASOsyalmedya, @BTC_USDT_LTC), expectations of growth to $25–50 (@CoinGecko).
- ETF: Bloomberg estimates a 90% probability of AVAX ETF approval in 2025, which could attract institutional investors.
- Bitcoin halving (2024): supports altcoins in 2025–2026.
- Tokenomics: Burning of fees, staking (APR ~5–10%), low circulating supply (58% of maximum).
- Risks:
- Regulation: SEC may classify AVAX as a security.
- Volatility: market capitalization (~10.5 billion USD) is vulnerable to whales.
- Competition: Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Arbitrum.
- Unlocks: ~50 million USD in 2025 may pressure the price.
- Pessimism: WalletInvestor predicts a drop to $0.058–0.06 USD by 2025, which contradicts the current momentum.
Recommendation:
- Investors: Buy on correction to 20.20–22.06 USD, stop below 12.24 USD. Target: 50.00–100.00 USD. Staking (APR ~5–10%) for income.
- Traders: Buy on breakout at 26.50 USD, target 54.18–60.45 USD. Sell below 20.20 USD, target 12.24–18.50 USD.
- Risk: 0.5–1% of deposit due to high volatility, low liquidity, and regulatory risks.
Risks: Regulation, competition, unlocks, whale manipulations, decline in interest in DeFi/NFT, fall of BTC/ETH.
