š #MacroUpdate | June 21, 2025
The Fed held rates steady at 4.25%ā4.50%, but the tone is shifting ā and the latest data supports that move.
š·ļø CPI ā Consumer Prices (May):
+0.1% MoM | +2.4% YoY
Core CPI: +0.1% MoM | +2.8% YoY
š Inflation is clearly cooling ā energy and goods dragging overall price growth lower.
š§© PPI ā Producer Prices (May):
+0.1% MoM | +2.6% YoY
ā ļø Mild cost pressures, but still no pass-through spike.
š„ Jobless Claims (Week ending June 14):
Initial: 245,000
4-week avg: 245,500 (highest since Aug 2023)
Continuing: ~1.94M
š§ Labor market is softening ā job growth is losing momentum.
š§ What This Means
Inflation is softening. The labor market is cooling. Producer costs remain contained. Together, this strengthens the case for a Fed pivot in Q3.
š Fed Outlook ā My View
Powell said inflation progress is āmeaningfulā but not yet decisive.
Waller hinted at a July cut if data confirms this cooling trend.
Yet others (Barkin, Daly) want to wait ā tariffs, global risks, and sticky services inflation still linger.
š Markets are undecided:
Bonds are pricing in easing
Risk assets (especially crypto) are still in consolidation mode
A September cut is increasingly likely, but not fully priced in