According to the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (#SEC. ) will approve the ETF based on #solana jumped to 83% by June 1. This is a significant upside compared to the April sentiments when faith in such an outcome literally dropped below 70%. However, in May the market picked up momentum and confidence noticeably strengthened.
Such a sharp boost in expectations did not come from nowhere. Increasing activity is observed around #etf products, where $SOL is featured. One of the key catalysts was the discussion of possible approval by the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund, which is applying for listing through NYSE Arca. The fund already includes heavyweights like $BTC and $ETH , and now Solana is being added to them - which looks like a good setup for institutional entry into alt.
Yes, the SEC, as is its habit, has delayed the final decision - the deadline has been moved from June 1 to July 31. But market participants are not rushing to panic: this looks more like bureaucratic processing than a specific refusal. The application is simply complex, and the regulator needs to sort everything out. Crypto is a complex topic, and the SEC has recently switched to 'maximum caution' mode, especially after all the swings with #Ripple , Grayscale, and the BTC ETF.
At the same time, other teams are making their bets. For example, REX Shares along with Osprey Funds are promoting an alternative model - "staking ETF", in which Solana and Ethereum are used for farming income through staking at least half of the fund's assets. It sounds cool, but here the SEC has made its adjustments: there are questions regarding compliance with the investment company act.
And yet, despite all this regulatory trip, the mood in the industry is shifting towards cautious but clear optimism. More and more voices in the community and among hedges suggest that 2025 could be the breakout point. If by then the market reaches a mature stage, institutional players will flood the markets with huge inflows of liquidity, and the SEC will backtrack on its hyper-cautiousness - an ETF on Solana will become a reality.