With a swing of Trump's tariff stick, could Bitcoin become the biggest beneficiary of the interest rate cut battle?

【Trump has quite the tricks up his sleeve】 As an old hand in the crypto world, I have to break down the recent uproar surrounding Trump's new policies. This guy just settled into the White House in February and immediately swung the tariff axe at Canada and Mexico, resulting in a plunge in Nasdaq, Bitcoin, and the dollar all at once. To be honest, instead of staring at K-line charts to guess rises and falls, it’s better to figure out what tricks Trump is up to.

Everyone can see the few ruthless moves this administration has made: Elon Musk's Dogecoin team has been restructured and laid off, federal poverty subsidies have been slashed in half, aid to Ukraine has been halted, and the most ruthless move is taking Fed Chairman Powell as a hostage — every now and then, threatening him to cut interest rates quickly. Don’t be fooled by the Fed's apparent independence; this guy is a savvy player in the capital game, and his ultimate goal is to bring back manufacturing + devalue the dollar. To achieve this, he must make the market believe that the dollar will depreciate, and cutting interest rates is the most direct nuclear button.

The current problem is that Powell, the stubborn old man, refuses to cooperate. What to do? Let the U.S. economy have a little car accident on its own! Cutting government spending in half and reducing unemployment benefits may seem gentle, but in reality, it’s pouring gasoline on the fire. The tariff stick is being wielded ineffectively; in February, he said it would be increased in March, then in March changed it to April, and as a result, the U.S. stock market is already terrified — Nasdaq has entered free fall mode, and the entire market feels like a startled bird.

I can remember the historical patterns: if U.S. stocks drop for two consecutive months, the consumer confidence index is guaranteed to plummet. Last week’s non-farm data came out and slapped us in the face, with both unemployment rates and employment numbers tanking — isn’t this a living example? When ordinary people see their stock accounts shrink, who dares to spend big? Naturally, inflation data follows suit and drops. At this point, Powell has a reason to jump out and say, "Look how great I am at bringing inflation down," and then logically starts to inject liquidity and cut rates.

I bet the Fed will definitely go for rate cuts in May and June this time, and Bitcoin, being a leveraged bull tied to Nasdaq, will certainly rebound ahead of time. Once old Powell starts the rate-cutting cycle, this wave of market activity could push prices up until the end of the year or even early next year. However, we need to keep a close eye on whether Trump's tariff cards will actually come down; if he suddenly tears off the mask, the global financial market will tremble again. Everyone should not just focus on watching the market, but also pay attention to the tricks of the White House folks!