Bitcoin (BTC) has various possibilities for its follow-up trend after falling from 109K to 78K. Here are some views based on market conditions and professional analysis:
Technical Analysis Perspective
• Breakthrough of Key Resistance Level: Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, believes that $91,500 is a key resistance level. If this position is broken, it may re-enter the upward range and surpass the other side of the range to create a new high. If it cannot break through, it may continue to oscillate within the current range or face correction pressure.
• Moving Average System and Bollinger Bands: If the price can regain a foothold above $103,000, there is an opportunity to challenge the $105,000-$107,000 area; if the price falls below $101,000, it may retest the $99,000-$100,000 support area. The price is operating near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and if it cannot break through the upper band, it may face further adjustment pressure.
Market Factors Perspective
• Macroeconomic Policy: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has withdrawn its lawsuit against Uniswap, signaling a relaxation of regulations, which may pave the way for the compliance of the cryptocurrency industry and be beneficial for the rise of Bitcoin prices. However, some state governments in the U.S. have vetoed Bitcoin reserve plans, bringing a degree of uncertainty to the market.
• Market Sentiment and Capital Flow: Although Bitcoin prices have rebounded, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is still in a state of 'Extreme Fear', indicating a lack of investor confidence. Capital inflows have decreased, and market sentiment is becoming cautious, potentially continuing to oscillate in the short term. However, institutions like MicroStrategy and sovereign funds are still increasing their purchases of crypto assets. If more institutional funds enter the market, it will drive up Bitcoin prices.
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