Bitcoin has marked itself as one of the strongest assets in terms of growth, as the token has entered the top 10 by market capitalization. Bitcoin has surpassed leading giants like Facebook and Saudi Aramco, as well as traditional assets like silver, ranking 7th with a market cap of nearly $2 trillion. Additionally, its price increase compared to other assets indicates that Bitcoin may just be starting to thrive.
I believe this is the biggest question in the minds of most friends during this bull market: Bitcoin is almost at [100000/unit], while altcoins are still on the decline.
However, the number of retail investors holding significant amounts of Bitcoin is extremely limited. Whether holding valuable coins or MEME coins, every day is just about taking hits!
The way this bull market has unfolded is significantly more challenging than before; the mindless money-making market seems to have left us for too long.
In this fragmented market, if one doesn't have a complete investment thinking framework, it is very easy to be influenced by market emotions, leading to confusion, self-doubt, and impulsive actions.
So, let's sort out what the 'causes' are for the current fragmented trends.
First perspective:
Since cryptocurrencies are dollar-denominated assets, let's analyze them from top to bottom, step by step, which will make our overall logical framework clearer:
First layer: Macro view: From a macro perspective, what stage are we currently in? We are in the initial stage of the Fed's entire easing cycle; interest rates have been cut, and liquidity is forthcoming.
Second layer: US stock market: Looking back at the performance of the US stock market for 2024, it's not hard to conclude that although the three major indices are hitting new highs, it is mainly driven by leading stocks during the transition from tightening to easing. Limited funds in the market tend to cluster around big tech stocks for stability and safety, especially in the AI sector, which has both a narrative and high interest. The headwind effect is very evident.
Third layer: Crypto market: The crypto market is a reflection of the US stock market, so the headwind effect is also evident. This is why Bitcoin is racing towards six figures, while altcoins are fluctuating.
Second perspective:
The composition of funds varies. Let’s take a look at the most popular crypto-related assets recently:
BTC, IBIT, MSTR, etc. In summary: headwinds, US capital, regular army! Why hasn’t the altcoin season arrived? It’s evident that the regular army will not temporarily choose these altcoin assets.
Future Opportunities and Challenges for BTC
1: Macro Opportunities
With Trump's entry into the White House, the next four years are a critical period for crypto development, which investors should seize. In this environment, the crypto market may welcome policy and emotional boosts, with BTC likely to stand out as the leader.
2: Bull Market Pattern
This bull market is characterized by institutional dominance; it is an institutional and ETF bull market. BTC and ETH lead the trend in the first tier, although SOL, XRP, and LTC have not yet reached a core position, they still have potential and should be monitored.
3: Trend Characteristics
The current bull market shows complex and variable trends. BTC is approaching a slow bull market in the American style, with prices steadily rising. Investors need to abandon speculative mindsets and establish long-term investment philosophies to adapt to the pace.
4: Altcoin Differentiation
The altcoin market is polarized; strong coins get stronger, and weak coins get weaker. Selecting potential altcoins is a key essential lesson for investors.
5: Investor Strategy
For retail newcomers, holding BTC is relatively stable and wise, and can yield considerable returns. Altcoin profiters can convert to holding BTC for the long term.
Swing traders in this bull market need trading skills and patience. Grasping opportunities is challenging and requires technical analysis, market insight, and resilient patience to achieve profitability.
Conclusion:
1. When will the altcoin season come? It will come when liquidity arrives.
2. Will the altcoin season come? Yes, it will come, as this is determined by the essence of funds and human nature, just like the reasoning behind missing the first dragon and chasing the second.
At this time, it's essential to remember one thing: do not let the market noise disturb you. Trading is actually quite simple. A rise is a good time to sell, and a fall is a good time to buy; it’s just about buying low and selling high.
The article ends here. If you are interested in me, you can click on my homepage and let’s seize this bull market together!