U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran demanding the full restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Odaily, this development marks a significant escalation in tensions. Garrett Jin, an agent for '1011 Insider Whale,' shared on the X platform that this move could have three major impacts.
Firstly, diplomatic buffers may be broken, potentially ending the discreet negotiations between Iran and Japan regarding the passage of ships. Secondly, the nature of the conflict could escalate, especially if attacks extend to civilian infrastructure like electricity, which could strengthen Iran's stance and increase the likelihood of a prolonged conflict.
Lastly, volatility in the oil market is expected to surge, with the oil volatility index (OVX) rising to 93, compared to the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) at approximately 24. This ratio, nearing four times, indicates that the risk in the oil market far exceeds stock market pricing. Overall, oil prices and market volatility are likely to continue rising, with expectations for a prolonged conflict duration.