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Avalanche price slips below $9 on Wednesday, extending its correction over the past four days.
VanEck’s spot ETF VAVX recorded an inflow of $4.26 million on Tuesday, the highest single-day inflow since its launch.
Mixed signals from on-chain and derivatives continue to weigh on AVAX price recovery.
Avalanche (AVAX) price trades below $9 at the time of writing on Wednesday, printing its fourth consecutive daily loss. The drop comes despite VanEck’s spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) VAVX recording its highest single-day inflow on Tuesday since launch in January, highlighting a disconnect between institutional flows and short-term price action. Meanwhile, mixed signals from on-chain and derivatives metrics continue to weigh on AVAX’s price recovery
Institutional demand fails to support AVAX price
The SoSoValue chart below shows that VanEck's spot ETF, VAVX, recorded a $4.26 million inflow on Tuesday, marking its highest single-day inflow since its launch in January. Despite this institutional demand, AVAX price action failed to respond positively, underscoring persistent selling pressure and limited conviction among traders.
CryptoQuant summary data indicate early signs of bullishness, with large whale orders, cooling conditions and buy-side dominance across both spot and futures markets. All these factors support a potential price recovery for Avalanche.
On the derivatives side, Avalanche futures Open Interest (OI) falls to $397 million on Wednesday, having declined steadily since mid-January, and it is nearing the February 11 low of $378 million. This drop in OI reflects waning investor participation and projects a bearish outlook.
However, the funding rates for AVAX support a positive outlook. The metric turned positive on Monday and stands at 0.0052% on Wednesday. The positive rates suggest that longs are paying shorts, suggesting bullish sentiment toward AVAX.
This combination of on-chain and derivatives suggests indecision among investors and limits the chances of a sustained recovery.
Avalanche Price Forecast: AVAX could revisit the $7.55 low
Avalanche price found support around the daily support at $8.78 on Feburary 11 and recovered over 11% in the next three days. However, on Sunday, AVAX failed to sustain the recovery and has since declined nearly 5% through Tuesday. As of writing on Wednesday, AVAX is trading at $9.08.
If AVAX continues its correction, it could extend the decline toward the daily support at $8.78. A close below this level could extend losses toward the February 6 low at $7.55.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 37, below the neutral level of 50 and points downward, indicating bearish momentum gaining traction. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover on Friday, which remains in place, suggesting that upside bias has not been invalidated yet.
If AVAX recovers, it could extend the advance to the key psychological level at $10.
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The MACD upholds a buy signal while the MFI indicator rises above the midline, suggesting a potential bullish shift.
Muted buying interest among retail and institutional traders could keep XRP rangebound.
Ripple (XRP) is supported above $1.40, and trading around $1.47 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The increase, although minor, has erased losses posted the previous day. However, low activity in both the institutional and retail environments may temper XRP’s bullish scope, currently targeting Sunday's high at $1.67.
XRP retail and institutional demand weakens
Since reaching its record high of $3.66 in July, XRP has struggled to sustain rebounds, leading to volatile price fluctuations amid a weakening retail derivatives market.
The XRP futures Open Interest (OI) stands at $2.45 billion on Wednesday, down from the $2.53 billion recorded on Tuesday. In contrast, the futures OI peaked at $10.94 billion in July, coinciding with the token’s all-time high.
The overextended decline in retail activity mirrors the drawdown in XRP price. As OI fades, traders close positions in droves and refuse to open new ones, leaving XRP vulnerable to market pressures and risk-off sentiment.
XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) also experienced a steady decline in investor interest, as evidenced by muted activity on Tuesday. According to SoSoValue data, US-listed XRP spot ETFs remained quiet, with no flows, leaving cumulative inflows at $1.23 billion and net assets under management at $1.06 billion.
As interest in related investment products fades, overall risk appetite also diminishes. Weak sentiment dampens XRP’s recovery potential, while increasing the probability of an extended bearish trend.
Technical outlook: XRP steadies above support as sideways trading extends
XRP has remained below the high on Sunday at $1.67, while support around $1.40 holds. Despite the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator having sustained a buy signal since Saturday, the overall structure remains bearish.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.71, the 100-day EMA at $1.92 and the 200-day EMA at $2.13 trend lower, limiting the upside. A continued decline below the demand zone at $1.40 may retest last Friday’s low at $1.35.
Meanwhile, the Money Flow Index (MFI), an indicator that tracks the flow of money in and out of XRP, is rising to 53, suggesting steady risk appetite. A higher increase in the MFI would confirm a bullish shift, with XRP likely to break out toward $1.67.Near-term targets include a break above the psychological hurdle at $1.50 and the next seller concentration at $1.54, which aligns with the February 6 high.
Near-term targets include a break above the psychological hurdle at $1.50 and the next seller concentration at $1.54, which aligns with the February 6 high.
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The head of the company's asset management explains that the recent crypto sell-off reflects a healthy deleveraging, while the growth of infrastructure and institutional adoption support a bullish outlook.
The defining story of this cycle, he argues, is the transformation of assets into infrastructure.
The merging of traditional financial networks with crypto infrastructure represents a significant and sustainable development of the market structure for global financial services," Kurz said in an interview with CoinDesk.

MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has officially confirmed the arrival of a new "crypto winter.".
Speaking live on Fox Business, MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor confirmed on Tuesday that the digital asset market has entered a "crypto winter."
This will be the fifth major drawdown for Bitcoin since Saylor entered the space five years ago.
When asked if the market was in the early stages of an extended bear cycle, Saylor was direct.
We are in a crypto winter," Saylor admitted. "This is the fifth major drawdown of Bitcoin in the five years since I've been in the marketplace."
However, he emphasized that this downturn differs significantly from previous cycles, predicting a rapid recovery due to institutional and political support.
This is a much milder winter than previous winters. It'll be shorter than previous winters. It's going to be followed by a spring and then a glorious summer. So don't fear," he said.
Saylor attributed his confidence to a fundamentally different macro environment compared to four years ago.
He cited the embrace of digital assets by the banking sector and the current U.S. administration as key stabilizers.
We've got the support of the administration…We've got 12 cabinet members that are pro-digital assets and pro-innovation," Saylor explained.
Fox Business pressed Saylor on MicroStrategy's financials, noting that the company's average Bitcoin acquisition cost of approximately $76,000 is now "materially above current market leve
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