If the period from 2017 to 2021 with the
#Web3 could be described as a blue ocean, then the investment in the Web3 primary market from the end of 2021 to the end of 2025 can be said to be a minefield, with the investment logic and environment shifting from purely "project future narrative-driven" to "economic model, further refinement, dual drivers of data and logic".
1. Project Essence: Changes in value and judgment of entrepreneurs
Github submission frequency
Activity trap
Diversity of contributors
High-risk executives with a Web2 background
Serial entrepreneurs
2. Judging the resources behind the project
Top-tier
#VC signal noise
Follow-on investment judgment
The value of grants from public chain foundations
Direct relationships with exchanges
Identification of scythe-shaped capital and advisors
3. Judging the popularity in the respective track
Expectation inflation period track (high-risk speculative)
Distinction between technological and narrative moats
Deep penetration of on-chain data and narrative falsification
Structural differences between real and fake popularity
Monitoring the flow of
#smartmoney Regulatory arbitrage and timing of macro liquidity cycles
Precise positioning in the macro liquidity cycle
4. Judging whether there is successful investment or large project operation experience
Success rate premium for serial entrepreneurs “second entry effect”
Operational metrics and Go-To-Market (GTM) execution
Community governance and
#危机公关 5. Judging valuation rationality
Risk discount and audit for anonymous teams
Discount logic
Compliance requirements
6. Judging the quality of unlock cycles and release models
Tokenomics
Cliff and linear vesting
Inflation rate and distribution structure inflation pressure testing are crucial
The moral level of the team itself
#空投入门