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“Financial Market Under Reflection of Global Changes: Petrobras, Vale and China at the Center of Decisions”
China changes monetary policy after more than a decade: The Chinese government announced its first change since 2010, adjusting policies to boost economic growth. The move reflects an attempt to mitigate economic risks and stimulate local markets.
- Expectations about the Selic rate in Brazil: The market is preparing for a possible new increase in the interest rate defined by Copom this week. In addition, the IPCA (inflation indicator) will be one of the main focuses of the market, influencing economic projections for 2024.
- Expectations about the Selic rate in Brazil: The market is preparing for a possible new increase in the interest rate defined by Copom this week. In addition, the IPCA (inflation indicator) will be one of the main focuses of the market, influencing economic projections for 2024.
🇧🇷 FOCUS REPORT — MARKET EXPECTATIONS 📊
(Released Monday, Jan 19)
🔻 Inflation (IPCA)
• 2026: 4.02% ⬇️ (from 4.05%)
• 2027: 3.80% ➖
• 2028: 3.50% ➖
• 2029: 3.50% ➖
📈 GDP Growth
• 2026: 1.80% ➖
• 2027: 1.80% ➖
• 2028: 2.00% ➖
• 2029: 2.00% ➖
🏦 Selic Rate (Policy Rate)
• 2026: 12.25% ➖
• 2027: 10.50% ➖
• 2028: 10.00% ⬆️ (from 9.88%)
• 2029: 9.50% ➖
📌 Market curve signal:
• Selic end-2026 priced ~12.81%
• Previous: 12.61%
⚠️ Takeaway:
Inflation expectations ease slightly, growth stays muted, but the rate curve is drifting higher, signaling persistent tightening risk.
#Brazil #Macro #FOCUSReport #Selic #IPCA
(Released Monday, Jan 19)
🔻 Inflation (IPCA)
• 2026: 4.02% ⬇️ (from 4.05%)
• 2027: 3.80% ➖
• 2028: 3.50% ➖
• 2029: 3.50% ➖
📈 GDP Growth
• 2026: 1.80% ➖
• 2027: 1.80% ➖
• 2028: 2.00% ➖
• 2029: 2.00% ➖
🏦 Selic Rate (Policy Rate)
• 2026: 12.25% ➖
• 2027: 10.50% ➖
• 2028: 10.00% ⬆️ (from 9.88%)
• 2029: 9.50% ➖
📌 Market curve signal:
• Selic end-2026 priced ~12.81%
• Previous: 12.61%
⚠️ Takeaway:
Inflation expectations ease slightly, growth stays muted, but the rate curve is drifting higher, signaling persistent tightening risk.
#Brazil #Macro #FOCUSReport #Selic #IPCA
The Brazilian Counterpoint
Why the Dollar Fell in Brazil While Rising in the World
On yet another day of geopolitical tension (VIX at 21.20), the dollar rose globally (DXY +0.19%)... but fell in Brazil (-0.25%).
The reasons:
💰 Positive flow: Liquidation of US$ 4.5 billion in Treasury bonds
🏦 Carry trade: With Selic at 15%, Brazil attracts foreign capital
📅 Post-holiday adjustments: Ash Wednesday had a partial session
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs lost US$ 133 million and Ethereum, US$ 41.8 million. Solana was the positive exception: +US$ 2.4 million.
#Dolar #Brasil #CarryTrade #selic #ETFs s
Why the Dollar Fell in Brazil While Rising in the World
On yet another day of geopolitical tension (VIX at 21.20), the dollar rose globally (DXY +0.19%)... but fell in Brazil (-0.25%).
The reasons:
💰 Positive flow: Liquidation of US$ 4.5 billion in Treasury bonds
🏦 Carry trade: With Selic at 15%, Brazil attracts foreign capital
📅 Post-holiday adjustments: Ash Wednesday had a partial session
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs lost US$ 133 million and Ethereum, US$ 41.8 million. Solana was the positive exception: +US$ 2.4 million.
#Dolar #Brasil #CarryTrade #selic #ETFs s
🧵 Thread 2: The Brazilian Scenario
Title: 🧵 Why the Dollar Fell in Brazil Amid Global Chaos
1/5 🧵 While the dollar rises worldwide (DXY at 97.88, +0.19%), in Brazil it fell 0.25%, closing at R$ 5,2271. Why?
2/5 🧵 REASON 1 – Positive flow: The Treasury auctioned US$ 4.5 billion in 10 and 30-year bonds last week. The settlement of these securities entered the country today, generating a supply of dollars.
3/5 🧵 REASON 2 – Carry trade: With Selic at 15%, Brazil remains attractive to foreign investors. They finance themselves in low-interest currencies and invest here, profiting from the difference.
4/5 🧵 REASON 3 – Adjustments post-holiday: Ash Wednesday had a partial session. The market is adjusting after Carnival.
5/5 🧵 GLOBAL CONTEXT: Despite the relief in the exchange rate, the external scenario remains tense: VIX at 21.20, US-Iran tension, Fed hawkish. The real may have found a breather, but global volatility still sets the pace.
#ThreadsVibes #Dolar #Brasil #carrytrade #selic
Title: 🧵 Why the Dollar Fell in Brazil Amid Global Chaos
1/5 🧵 While the dollar rises worldwide (DXY at 97.88, +0.19%), in Brazil it fell 0.25%, closing at R$ 5,2271. Why?
2/5 🧵 REASON 1 – Positive flow: The Treasury auctioned US$ 4.5 billion in 10 and 30-year bonds last week. The settlement of these securities entered the country today, generating a supply of dollars.
3/5 🧵 REASON 2 – Carry trade: With Selic at 15%, Brazil remains attractive to foreign investors. They finance themselves in low-interest currencies and invest here, profiting from the difference.
4/5 🧵 REASON 3 – Adjustments post-holiday: Ash Wednesday had a partial session. The market is adjusting after Carnival.
5/5 🧵 GLOBAL CONTEXT: Despite the relief in the exchange rate, the external scenario remains tense: VIX at 21.20, US-Iran tension, Fed hawkish. The real may have found a breather, but global volatility still sets the pace.
#ThreadsVibes #Dolar #Brasil #carrytrade #selic
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