eur

The Dollar has retreated in the face of Trump

Rumours of US-Iran talks have sent the $EUR /USD pair 1.2% up.

Oil is unlikely to return to pre-war levels.

The markets risk repeating past mistakes. Barely ten days into the conflict in the Middle East, Donald Trump began talking about negotiations with Iran. At that point, US stock indices rose, the dollar weakened, and oil prices fell. Two weeks later, history repeated itself. We heard the same talk from the president about dialogue with Tehran, just as the markets were plummeting and oil was beginning an uncontrolled surge. It seems that Brent's and EURUSD’s previous experiences have taught them nothing.

For Donald Trump, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a fall in oil prices, and the return to the markets of the idea of a cut in the federal funds rate are of the utmost importance. So far, this view is supported only by Governor Stephen Miran, appointed by the President to the FOMC. In his words, the central bank must not be swayed by short-term headlines. Yes, inflation risks have risen, but so have the risks of a cooling labour market.

By contrast, Ostin Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has not ruled out either a resumption of the monetary easing cycle or a rise in interest rates. The latter aligns with the expectations of the derivatives market. Derivatives markets anticipate one round of monetary tightening from the Bank of England and two from the ECB. The outperformance of British and German bonds over their US counterparts is driving gains in GBPUSD and EURUSD. The rally in the euro and the pound against the US dollar is being fuelled by an improvement in global risk appetite following Trump’s speeches.

Meanwhile, gold has briefly dipped below $4,100 per ounce. High interest rates and the associated strengthening of fiat currencies are depriving the precious metal of its key trump card – debasement trading. Until signs of a US recession appear on the horizon and the Fed begins to discuss large-scale monetary stimulus, gold is likely to remain under pressure.

The situation is different with oil, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to help. According to Societe Generale and ANZ Research, Brent is unlikely to return quickly to levels of $65–70 per barrel. The main reason cited is a reduction in output by Gulf producers. In other words, the market has moved from a record surplus to a balanced state. Therefore, Brent crude is likely to remain above $85–90, giving the US dollar an advantage as the currency of a net energy exporter.
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#USDOLLAR
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$EUR /JPY holds as Yen firms on BoJ outlook and intervention risks

The EUR/JPY trades neutral near 184.00, with the Japanese Yen gaining modest strength despite sustained risk appetite.

President Trump signals potential de-escalation with Iran, supporting sentiment but limiting safe-haven flows.

A relatively hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan and rising intervention concerns cap further upside in Yen crosses.

The EUR/JPY cross trades in a tight range around the 184.00 price region, even retracing some of its intraday gains, though risk appetite remains high. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is gaining ground against the Euro (EUR).

President Donald Trump announced a postponement of the attack on Iran. He later commented on the Iran war, claiming that he hopes to meet soon because they “have major points of agreement,” and that if talks carry through, it will end the conflict.

Crossing the pond, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a relatively hawkish stance after Governor Kazuo Ueda recently emphasized that additional rate hikes may be possible if inflation develops as anticipated.

On the European side, the flash Consumer Confidence for March was released worse than expected at -16.3, down from -12.2 last month, indicating that European confidence is being affected and could be a problem if it continues to decline.

Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/JPY trades at 183.92. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the pair holds above the rising 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 183.37 and the flatter 100-period SMA around 183.29, keeping price supported on shallow pullbacks. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is advancing to 58, above its midline and away from overbought territory, indicating steady buying pressure rather than exhaustion.

Immediate support sits at 183.66, backed by the nearby 20-period SMA, with a deeper floor at 183.20 where earlier demand emerged. On the upside, initial resistance is aligned at 184.00, with a break exposing the recent cap near 184.23; a sustained move above this area would open the way for a continuation of the prevailing upswing toward higher highs on the 4-hour horizon.
#EUR
#eurjpy
#trading
#MarketAnalysis

$EUR /USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA acts as key barrier, sees more downside below 1.3400

EUR/USD declines to near 1.1535 as the US Dollar gains amid Middle East conflicts.

Iran vows to retaliate against Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum.
The EUR/USD pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) trades higher due to escalating Middle East conflicts, trading 0.3% lower to near 1.1535 during the European trading session on Monday. The US Dollar gains as Middle East conflicts, which involve the United States (US), Israel, and Iran, have increased the demand for safe-haven assets.

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.35% higher to near 99.90.

Conflicts in the Middle East have escalated as Iran vows the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional infrastructure belonging to the US and Israel against President Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum.

Over the weekend, US President Trump threatened attacks on Tehran’s power plants through a post on Truth.Social, if it doesn’t open Hormuz within the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, the Euro $EUR trades lower as surging energy prices in the Eurozone are expected to diminish households’ purchasing power. On the monetary policy front, Goldman Sachs expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates in April and the June policy meetings. Last week, the ECB left interest rates unchanged.

EUR/USD trades lower at around 1.1535 as of writing. The near-term bias is bearish as spot holds below the descending 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1600 and acting as dynamic resistance after the recent breakdown from the mid-1.16 area. Price action has set a sequence of lower highs and lower closes from the 1.18 zone, while the RSI at 42 remains below the 50 midline, confirming persistent downside momentum rather than a completed correction.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA, followed by the March 10 high of 1.1667. A daily close above the latter would be needed to challenge the broader bearish structure. On the downside, immediate support sits at 1.1500, guarding the recent low at 1.1415; a break below 1.1415 would open the way toward the 1.1350 region as the next bearish target zone.
The ECB could deliver interest rate hikes in the next two policy meetings.
#EUR
#EURUSD
#eurousdt
#CryptoMarket

Forex Today: Middle East crisis deepens, Gold plunges to fresh 2026-low

Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 23:

Safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, investors will pay close attention to geopolitical headlines on Monday.

Over the weekend, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that they will “obliterate” Iran’s power plants, starting with the biggest one, if they refuse to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. In response, Iran warned that it will retaliate and target all US-linked energy infrastructure in the Middle East if the US attacks its power plants. In a statement published on Sunday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed if the US executes threats against its energy facilities, adding that companies with US shares will be completely destroyed.

Meanwhile, citing two sources familiar with the matter, the Jerusalem Post reported early Monday that the US is preparing to launch a ground military operation to seize the Iranian island of Kharg.

After losing about 10% in the previous week, $XAU remains under heavy selling pressure to start the week and trades at its lowest level since December below $4,200, down nearly 7% on the day.

Crude Oil prices push higher in the European session on Monday. At the time of press, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up more than 2% on the day near $100.

The US Dollar (USD) benefits from safe-haven flows and gathers strength against its major rivals early Monday. The USD Index was last seen rising 0.3% on the day at 99.80. In the meantime, US stock index futures stay under heavy pressure, losing between 0.6% and 1% on the day.

$EUR /USD loses traction and trades in the red below 1.1550 in the European session on Monday after having gained more than 1% in the previous week.

GBP/USD continues to push lower after opening with a small bearish gap and trades below 1.3300 on Monday.

Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said on Monday that the government considers to take measures on all fronts in foreign exchange (FX) volatility. After rising nearly 1% on Friday, USD/JPY holds its ground and clings to small gains near 159.50.
#XAU #EUR
#crudeoil #USDOLLAR
#forexmarkets

$EUR /USD Weekly Forecast: War continues to steal the limelight, and not for good
Major central banks refrained from acting but turned hawkishly vigilant on inflation.
The Middle East war continues to disrupt energy supplies, with no end in sight.
EUR/USD bearish case remains firm in place despite the latest bounce.
The EUR/USD pair bounced back in the last few days, settling for the week around 1.1530. The Iran war and central banks’ monetary policy announcements took centre stage, yet none was enough to impress speculative interest.

Middle East energy crisis intensified
In the last few days, markets were particularly affected by two events. Early in the week, the United States (US) launched a massive attack on Iran's Kharg Island, the major Iranian oil hub. US President Donald Trump claimed they did not hit the oil infrastructure but military bases, while Iran later reported crude facilities remained intact. Nevertheless, oil prices gapped higher at the opening, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) flirting with $100.
The EUR/USD pair bounced back in the last few days, settling for the week around 1.1530. The Iran war and central banks’ monetary policy announcements took centre stage, yet none was enough to impress speculative interest.

Middle East energy crisis intensified
In the last few days, markets were particularly affected by two events. Early in the week, the United States (US) launched a massive attack on Iran's Kharg Island, the major Iranian oil hub. US President Donald Trump claimed they did not hit the oil infrastructure but military bases, while Iran later reported crude facilities remained intact. Nevertheless, oil prices gapped higher at the opening, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) flirting with $100
Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB), in a unanimous decision, left the interest rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility at 2.15%, 2.4% and 2%, respectively, also meeting the market’s expectations. The monetary policy statement showed that the outlook has become “significantly” more uncertain due to the war in the Middle East, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.

President Christine Lagarde dropped the “good place” when referring to the ECB’s stance on monetary policy, noting policymakers are now “well positioned and well equipped to deal with the development of a major shock,” also noting they are ready for an “agile” response.

The hawkish lean was quite notorious among policymakers worldwide, with interest rate hikes conditioned to the extent of the war. And the war is nowhere near ending. Headlines on Wednesday indicated that the White House is seeking for $200 billion more for the war in Iran, as President Trump wants “vast amounts of ammunition,” partially depleted by the US contribution to Ukraine. Just in the first week, the war cost 11.3 billion. The conflict is now extending into its fourth week.

Currencies barely reacted to central banks’ headlines and announcements, as there were no surprises there.

Quiet data docket, busy policymakers week
There were some quite notorious pieces of data out there. The German ZEW survey showed that Economic Sentiment collapsed in March, with the index down to -0.5 and to -8.5 in the Eurozone from 58.3 and 39.4, respectively, in February. The assessment of the current situation edged lower to -62.9 from the previous -65.9. The report indicates fears about the war's consequences are widespread.

Additionally, the US reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 3.4% YoY in February, while the core annual reading printed at 3.9%, up from 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively, fueling inflation-related concerns ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

The macroeconomic calendar will include the European Union (EU) March Consumer Confidence on Monday, and the March S&P Global preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for the Euro bloc and the US on Tuesday.

A myriad of Fed speakers will be on the wires throughout the upcoming days, while some ECB members are also participating in public events. Their words will be closely followed for hints on the future of monetary policy.
a certainty
From a technical point of view, the weekly chart shows that EUR/USD is neutral-to-bearish. The pair develops below the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.1700 while remaining comfortably above the rising 100- and 200-week SMAs clustered around 1.0900–1.1200, keeping the long-term bearish case limited. The Momentum indicator has turned flat below its midline, signaling softening buying pressure after the earlier advance. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 45, with limited downward strength, hinting at a loss of bullish conviction.

In the daily chart, $EUR /USD is mildly bearish as spot holds below the gently descending 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.1625, which slides under the flatter 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered near 1.1689 and 1.1677, respectively, keeping the broader tone under pressure. The Momentum indicator advances within negative levels, while the RSI indicator turned south at around 42, all of which reflects easing selling pressure but remains far from suggesting an upcoming advance.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day SMA near 1.1625, with a break above exposing the longer moving averages around 1.1680. Further advances seem unlikely at this point and the area should cap advances to maintain the bearish trend in place. On the downside, immediate support sits at the recent low around 1.1411, where prior price rejection aligns with the RSI rebound and could attract dip buyers. A decisive drop below 1.1400 would reopen the downside and extend the prevailing bearish phase, with investors then aiming for a test of 1.1300, the next psychological threshold.
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#EURUSD
#MiddleEastTensions
#CryptoMarket