The Future of Australia’s Undersea Capability: AUKUS or Bust?
The viability of the AUKUS pact has once again taken center stage following the Sovereignty and Security Forum in Canberra. In a pointed exchange, senior defense officials and former political leaders debated whether Australia has a viable "Plan B" should the delivery of nuclear-powered submarines face further delays.
Hugh Jeffrey, Deputy Secretary for the Department of Defence, underscored the high stakes of the current strategy. He warned that abandoning the deal now would likely leave Australia with no submarine capability at all, noting that this represents the fourth attempt since the 1980s to replace the ageing Collins-class fleet. Jeffrey emphasized that the department is focused exclusively on the directed mandate of AUKUS, declining to publicly speculate on alternative contingencies.
However, the discussion highlighted significant hurdles:
Industrial Capacity: Critics, including former PM Malcolm Turnbull, raised concerns over whether US shipyards can meet their own domestic needs while simultaneously fulfilling orders for Australia's Virginia-class submarines.
Financial Commitment: Australia has already allocated over $2 billion of a promised $9 billion to bolster US and UK industrial bases, yet guarantees on delivery timelines remain a point of contention.
Legislative Barriers: US law prevents the sale of submarines if it would "degrade" their own undersea capabilities, a clause that remains a focal point for those skeptical of the deal’s reliability.
As the Collins-class submarines reach the end of their extended operational lives, the pressure to ensure AUKUS succeeds is immense. The debate remains: Is AUKUS a $368bn solution to regional security, or a high-stakes gamble with no safety net?
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