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Searching for the Sword: The S&P and Nasdaq are expected to peak around March 20, 2025, and reach a bottom on April 8, 2025!\nCurrent indicators: The S&P's daily MACD is opening downwards below the water line, and the RSI is below the midline, also opening downwards. The technical outlook is undoubtedly bearish. If the situation in the Middle East does not improve in the short term, this time the decline is very likely to be deeper than in March 2025. Personally, I am relatively optimistic about a drop to the 6100/6200 range.\nThe Nasdaq's technical performance is stronger than the S&P, mainly benefiting from the capital clustering around AI technology leaders and the premium on growth attributes: the top 5 weights in the Nasdaq (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, etc.) account for over 50%, deeply tied to AI computing power and large model dividends, with growth stocks proving to be more resilient than the balanced structure of the S&P.\n\nAlthough it follows the S&P's pullback, the MACD and RSI's downward slope is more gradual, with stronger buying support for core tech stocks. The expected decline will significantly narrow, primarily characterized by high-level fluctuations rather than a deep plunge like that of the S&P.\nNote: The strength of the Nasdaq essentially reflects the market's pricing of the "future growth story," which is essentially the speculative sentiment surrounding AI. Therefore, when trading the Nasdaq, one only needs to focus on one thing: the capital heat and sentiment changes regarding AI. Once the enthusiasm wanes, its downward extent may be greater than that of the S&P.\n\nAs for how to link it with the crypto circle, research it yourself! #SPX #NDX #BTC
Will there still be an altcoin season after BTC becomes integrated with US stocks (taking NDX and Russell 2000 as examples)
After the BTC ETF was approved, BTC began to follow the Nasdaq's movements and gradually became a leading indicator during US stock market closures. However, in this cycle, as BTC rose, there was no explosive growth of altcoins as seen previously. Therefore, we will compare altcoins with the Russell 2000 to observe the fluctuations of this altcoin season.
First, the conclusion:
1. An altcoin season will occur after BTC peaks, but overall, the increase will not exceed that of BTC (some sectors may experience explosive growth).
2. The scale is far below the previous growth when BTC had an independent narrative.
3. When the market is declining, altcoins often experience larger drops, making it difficult to hedge quickly.
4. BTC will continue to outperform the total altcoin index after becoming integrated with US stocks.
Comparison and analysis of Nasdaq and Russell 2000
NDX acts as a leading indicator during bull markets, especially benefiting from the rapid development of technology, AI, software, and chip industries in this round. Therefore, during bull markets, NDX significantly outperforms the Russell 2000.
US2000 generally performs well during economic recovery and liquidity easing but faces greater pressure in a high-interest-rate environment. (Figure 2)
In a rising market, NDX is more attractive, but in times of market uncertainty or increased downside risk, US2000 may offer more defensiveness and stability.
Is the high point of US2000 a signal for the Nasdaq to peak?
The high point of the Russell 2000 typically indicates that NDX is about to face a peak or pullback. When the market is overheated, small-cap stocks (which dominate the Russell 2000) may face selling pressure first, serving as a 'warning signal' for the market, as these stocks are more sensitive and easily influenced by changes in market sentiment.
During market pullbacks, US2000 often experiences larger declines, while NDX's retreat is relatively smaller due to the stronger resilience of large-cap technology stocks.
Therefore, the high point of US2000 will reflect changes in the market in advance and become a 'leading indicator' for NDX peaking.
After the BTC ETF was approved, BTC began to follow the Nasdaq's movements and gradually became a leading indicator during US stock market closures. However, in this cycle, as BTC rose, there was no explosive growth of altcoins as seen previously. Therefore, we will compare altcoins with the Russell 2000 to observe the fluctuations of this altcoin season.
First, the conclusion:
1. An altcoin season will occur after BTC peaks, but overall, the increase will not exceed that of BTC (some sectors may experience explosive growth).
2. The scale is far below the previous growth when BTC had an independent narrative.
3. When the market is declining, altcoins often experience larger drops, making it difficult to hedge quickly.
4. BTC will continue to outperform the total altcoin index after becoming integrated with US stocks.
Comparison and analysis of Nasdaq and Russell 2000
NDX acts as a leading indicator during bull markets, especially benefiting from the rapid development of technology, AI, software, and chip industries in this round. Therefore, during bull markets, NDX significantly outperforms the Russell 2000.
US2000 generally performs well during economic recovery and liquidity easing but faces greater pressure in a high-interest-rate environment. (Figure 2)
In a rising market, NDX is more attractive, but in times of market uncertainty or increased downside risk, US2000 may offer more defensiveness and stability.
Is the high point of US2000 a signal for the Nasdaq to peak?
The high point of the Russell 2000 typically indicates that NDX is about to face a peak or pullback. When the market is overheated, small-cap stocks (which dominate the Russell 2000) may face selling pressure first, serving as a 'warning signal' for the market, as these stocks are more sensitive and easily influenced by changes in market sentiment.
During market pullbacks, US2000 often experiences larger declines, while NDX's retreat is relatively smaller due to the stronger resilience of large-cap technology stocks.
Therefore, the high point of US2000 will reflect changes in the market in advance and become a 'leading indicator' for NDX peaking.
The rally from the stock market will spread to the crypto market.
An investor who correctly predicted the 2022 crypto bottom believes the crypto market is likely preparing to follow in the footsteps of the stock market bull. Placeholder partner Chris Berniske made the observation that cryptocurrencies often rise when the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) takes a breather. He cited data from Glassnode founders Jan Happel and Jan Allemann, who noted that since 2019, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown strong growth after the NDX stalled. Happel and Allemann wrote that Bitcoin outperformed the NDX in May 2019 after the index showed signs of bullish exhaustion. The co-founders of Glassnode added that a similar case occurred in 2020. According to Allemann and Happel, Bitcoin is now inches away from surpassing the NDX again as the index is close to a local high.#BTC #NDX
🚨 US STOCK MARKET WARNING: MIDTERM ELECTION RISK IMMINENT 🚨
US equity returns are likely to lag the previous two years due to the major uncertainty of the midterm elections looming in the second half. Nasdaq has been stuck below 24000 for three months; I maintain that without a breakout, a 10%+ pullback is default.
The focus shifts violently around July/August. Given capital hates uncertainty, and the potential for a constitutional crisis involving the "King" potentially using executive power, swapping exposure to $GOLD after July is the smarter tactical move.
$BTC must track $NDX closely; if stocks fall, $BTC follows without fail. I do not foresee a 40% crash in $NDX; a 30% drop triggers Fed intervention, marking the bottom. Expect the yearly ATH in Q2 or Q3, not Q4.
#StockMarket #Midterms #NDX #GOLD #BTC 📉
US equity returns are likely to lag the previous two years due to the major uncertainty of the midterm elections looming in the second half. Nasdaq has been stuck below 24000 for three months; I maintain that without a breakout, a 10%+ pullback is default.
The focus shifts violently around July/August. Given capital hates uncertainty, and the potential for a constitutional crisis involving the "King" potentially using executive power, swapping exposure to $GOLD after July is the smarter tactical move.
$BTC must track $NDX closely; if stocks fall, $BTC follows without fail. I do not foresee a 40% crash in $NDX; a 30% drop triggers Fed intervention, marking the bottom. Expect the yearly ATH in Q2 or Q3, not Q4.
#StockMarket #Midterms #NDX #GOLD #BTC 📉
🚨 MEGA-REMINDER: THE FED IS PUSHING ON THE GAS!
Starting today, the U.S. Federal Reserve is launching a powerful pump, injecting $40 billion monthly into the market for the purchase of short-term Treasury bills..
What does this mean? This is FUEL FOR THE MARKETS! 💥
A huge liquidity injection that will make assets soar into space. Get ready for a bull rally! 🐂
ATTENTION: The Fed has opened the tap — it's time to buckle up!
$SPX
#NDX
Starting today, the U.S. Federal Reserve is launching a powerful pump, injecting $40 billion monthly into the market for the purchase of short-term Treasury bills..
What does this mean? This is FUEL FOR THE MARKETS! 💥
A huge liquidity injection that will make assets soar into space. Get ready for a bull rally! 🐂
ATTENTION: The Fed has opened the tap — it's time to buckle up!
$SPX
#NDX
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