globaleconomicnews

Trade negotiations between Switzerland and the United States will take longer than the initially planned March deadline, said Swiss President Guy Parmelin. The delay is due to the difficulties both countries are facing in formalizing the preliminary agreement reached last year regarding the reduction of punitive tariffs.

The decline in oil production, rising gasoline prices, and market nervousness - the war between the US and Israel against Iran has reminded us of the oil crises of the 1970s. Back then, the economy of the Federal Republic of Germany fell into stagflation. How serious is the situation now?

How soon will pedestrians in Germany be able to stroll peacefully along the motorways again, as their parents did during the oil crises of 1973 and 1979? The current situation in the Middle East and the sharp rise in oil prices remind us of those events when Germans were forced to use their cars less frequently. At that time, Arab oil-producing countries imposed an embargo against Western countries, and stock prices skyrocketed. The US and European countries had to take strict austerity measures. The authorities of the Federal Republic of Germany, among other things, declared four car-free Sundays nationwide.

Guy Spier, a renowned value investor from Zurich and a long-time follower of Warren Buffett, is returning capital to the investors of his Aquamarine Fund with a volume of $470 million, citing health issues and fundamental changes in the viability of active management.

The global drone market is entering a phase of transformational expansion, with a projected valuation of $250 billion by 2035. According to a new special report by Barclays (LSE: BARC), the integration of artificial intelligence into unmanned aerial vehicles, a shift referred to as "Physical AI", is fundamentally changing the defense landscape.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has already impacted global helium supplies: the halt of Qatari LNG and the closure of delivery routes threaten a gas shortage, without which microchip production may sharply slow down.

Since the beginning of the war between the USA and Israel against Iran, fears of rising oil and gas prices have been growing louder, becoming the main topic of news. Meanwhile, public dissatisfaction with rising fuel prices is increasing worldwide. Another consequence of the organized blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranians is causing growing concern among authorities and businesses in many countries - a helium shortage.

Goldman Sachs raised the rating of Intesa Sanpaolo to "buy" from "neutral" on Friday, setting a target price of €6.9 with a growth potential of 36%, as part of a review of ratings across the Italian banking sector, downgrading Banco BPM and initiating coverage of two lenders.
Intesa has shown results worse than the broader European banking index SX7P, approximately 7 percentage points since the beginning of the year, while the shares are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio for the next 12 months of 8.8x according to the LSEG consensus, which is 5% lower than the average coverage of European banks by Goldman Sachs.

Michael Burry reported that he bought shares of mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the decline, although he himself is waiting for the housing market to experience a 'long winter.' The legendary short-seller believes that a full listing of the companies on the stock exchange is unlikely to happen before 2027 — this is hindered by weak interest from Wall Street, the complex structure of the deal, high rates, and risks to the housing market. At the same time, in Burry's opinion, what is more important for the growth of the stocks is not the IPO itself, but the transfer of shares from the over-the-counter market to the exchange and a clear decision on the preferred securities of the U.S. Treasury, as it is precisely from this that what current shareholders will receive depends.

Copper prices are closing Friday's trading with the first week of growth for the entire month of March. Investor optimism is fueled by expectations that U.S. diplomatic efforts to end the war in the Middle East will be successful and will help avoid a significant slowdown in global growth, reports Bloomberg.

Mastercard plans to sell its instant payment division, which it acquired from the Danish Nets Group in 2019 for $3.2 billion, the Financial Times reported on Thursday. This move will effectively reverse the largest acquisition deal by a credit card company.
The company has engaged investment bankers to facilitate the sale of the business, which may attract private equity groups, according to the report. Mastercard is expected to receive a significantly lower price than what it paid for the asset.

UBS now expects that the Federal Reserve will delay the start of the easing cycle until September, citing persistent inflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and reduced urgency regarding the labor market.
In his note, UBS economist for the U.S. Andrew Dubinski wrote that the bank "now expects the next Fed rate cut in September, followed by a second cut in December," which will bring the federal funds rate down to approximately 3.00–3.25% by the end of 2026.

Gas stations in Germany will be able to raise fuel prices only once a day. The bill was passed after a sharp rise in prices since the beginning of the war in Iran, it still needs to be approved by the Bundesrat. According to the plan, the new measures will come into effect in April.

Due to the sharp rise in oil prices since the beginning of the war in Iran, German lawmakers have significantly restricted the ability to raise prices for gasoline and diesel fuel at gas stations. On Thursday, March 26, Bundestag deputies passed a bill introduced by the ruling coalition factions.

French President Emmanuel Macron may become the first sitting head of state in the G7 to speak at an institutional conference dedicated to digital assets. According to a press release, he will speak at the Paris Blockchain Week 2026 event at the 'Carrousel du Louvre' shopping center, which will take place on April 15-16.

Members of the European Parliament voted for the ratification of a large trade agreement with the USA after months of delays. The approval of the document removes the main obstacle to normalizing transatlantic relations; however, Europe has preemptively included strict protective mechanisms in the text in case of unpredictable actions by Washington, reports Bloomberg.

Needham & Company raised the rating of Arm Holdings shares to Buy and set a target price of $200 per share in a report on Thursday, claiming that a series of aggressive strategic moves is beginning to pay off just as demand for AI-focused processors accelerates.
Needham stated that Arm's pursuit of higher royalty rates, computing subsystems, and proprietary silicon solutions is working after many years of uncertainty.

Bernstein raised the target price of ASML Holding NV (AS:ASML) shares to €1,700 from €1,600 on Thursday, citing the accelerating expansion of DRAM capacity, which is expected to more than double EUV equipment supplies from the Dutch chip-making equipment manufacturer to customers in the memory segment by 2028.

Stock positions have weakened but remain far from the territory of capitulation, according to a note from Barclays analyst Emmanuel Kauff from Wednesday, who stated that the recent reduction in risks by fast investors was not accompanied by an outflow of funds from long-term investors.
Kauff wrote that hedge funds and CTAs "significantly reduced their aggregate positions when markets entered risk-averse mode," while systematic exposure was sharply reduced to neutral levels.

Nickel prices have sharply risen after Indonesia—the world's largest producer of this critically important battery metal—approved the introduction of export duties. The decision by authorities was prompted by the urgent need to replenish the treasury amid rising costs of importing expensive oil, writes Bloomberg.

General Motors (NYSE:GM) is investing $600 million in its division in South Korea to modernize production facilities, improve safety infrastructure, and enhance operational efficiency, the company said in a statement.
The automaker plans to allocate $300 million for the modernization of production facilities, including new press machines.

Arm Holdings, which has made a name for itself by licensing technology to semiconductor manufacturers, will begin selling its own processors for the first time, intensifying competition with Intel and AMD in the AI infrastructure market, Bloomberg reports. This direction, the company expects, will bring it about $15 billion a year over the next five years. Arm's first major client will be Meta, which is actively increasing investments in data centers.

Volkswagen is in negotiations with the Israeli company Rafael Advanced Defence Systems regarding a deal that will allow the German automaker to shift one of its factories from car production to the manufacture of missile defense systems, Financial Times reported on Tuesday.
The plan involves the transformation of the Volkswagen plant in Osnabrück for the production of components for the 'Iron Dome' air defense system by Rafael, according to the report.