eurusd

The euro recovered modest ground against the US dollar, with EUR/USD paring earlier losses after the release of weaker-than-expected US PMI data weighed on the greenback.

Initially under pressure, the euro found support as the US dollar retreated in response to softer business activity indicators. The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures signaled a slowdown in the US economy, raising concerns about the strength of near-term growth and tempering expectations for prolonged monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

The pullback in the dollar allowed EUR/USD to rebound from intraday lows, although gains remained limited as broader market sentiment stayed cautious. Investors continue to weigh diverging economic outlooks between the Eurozone and the United States, alongside evolving central bank expectations.

Market participants are increasingly sensitive to incoming macroeconomic data, particularly indicators that could influence interest rate trajectories. The weaker PMI reading has reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more measured approach in upcoming policy decisions, reducing immediate upside pressure on the dollar.

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD is attempting to stabilize after recent declines, with buyers stepping in near key support levels. However, the pair still faces resistance overhead, suggesting that a sustained recovery will require stronger bullish catalysts.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on additional economic releases, including inflation data and central bank commentary, to gauge the next directional move. While the euro’s rebound offers short-term relief, uncertainty remains high, and price action may stay volatile in the near term.

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Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is mainly driven by geopolitical factors and safe-haven demand. Tensions in the Middle East (missile attacks, Iran-Israel conflict, and possible US-Iran talks) have generated volatility: rises due to risk aversion and pullbacks with hopes of de-escalation. Other drivers include the strength of the dollar (DXY firm due to caution), possible trade tensions under the Trump administration, and the use of gold reserves by central banks (e.g., Turkey to defend the lira). There is no strong direct mention of inflation or Fed rates in the most recent data, but the metal acts as a macro hedge. Overall, mixed fundamentals: geopolitical support, but recent downward pressure due to relief in risks.

$EUR /USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA acts as key barrier, sees more downside below 1.3400

EUR/USD declines to near 1.1535 as the US Dollar gains amid Middle East conflicts.

Iran vows to retaliate against Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum.
The EUR/USD pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) trades higher due to escalating Middle East conflicts, trading 0.3% lower to near 1.1535 during the European trading session on Monday. The US Dollar gains as Middle East conflicts, which involve the United States (US), Israel, and Iran, have increased the demand for safe-haven assets.

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.35% higher to near 99.90.

Conflicts in the Middle East have escalated as Iran vows the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional infrastructure belonging to the US and Israel against President Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum.

Over the weekend, US President Trump threatened attacks on Tehran’s power plants through a post on Truth.Social, if it doesn’t open Hormuz within the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, the Euro $EUR trades lower as surging energy prices in the Eurozone are expected to diminish households’ purchasing power. On the monetary policy front, Goldman Sachs expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates in April and the June policy meetings. Last week, the ECB left interest rates unchanged.

EUR/USD trades lower at around 1.1535 as of writing. The near-term bias is bearish as spot holds below the descending 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1600 and acting as dynamic resistance after the recent breakdown from the mid-1.16 area. Price action has set a sequence of lower highs and lower closes from the 1.18 zone, while the RSI at 42 remains below the 50 midline, confirming persistent downside momentum rather than a completed correction.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA, followed by the March 10 high of 1.1667. A daily close above the latter would be needed to challenge the broader bearish structure. On the downside, immediate support sits at 1.1500, guarding the recent low at 1.1415; a break below 1.1415 would open the way toward the 1.1350 region as the next bearish target zone.
The ECB could deliver interest rate hikes in the next two policy meetings.
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$EUR /USD Weekly Forecast: War continues to steal the limelight, and not for good
Major central banks refrained from acting but turned hawkishly vigilant on inflation.
The Middle East war continues to disrupt energy supplies, with no end in sight.
EUR/USD bearish case remains firm in place despite the latest bounce.
The EUR/USD pair bounced back in the last few days, settling for the week around 1.1530. The Iran war and central banks’ monetary policy announcements took centre stage, yet none was enough to impress speculative interest.

Middle East energy crisis intensified
In the last few days, markets were particularly affected by two events. Early in the week, the United States (US) launched a massive attack on Iran's Kharg Island, the major Iranian oil hub. US President Donald Trump claimed they did not hit the oil infrastructure but military bases, while Iran later reported crude facilities remained intact. Nevertheless, oil prices gapped higher at the opening, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) flirting with $100.
The EUR/USD pair bounced back in the last few days, settling for the week around 1.1530. The Iran war and central banks’ monetary policy announcements took centre stage, yet none was enough to impress speculative interest.

Middle East energy crisis intensified
In the last few days, markets were particularly affected by two events. Early in the week, the United States (US) launched a massive attack on Iran's Kharg Island, the major Iranian oil hub. US President Donald Trump claimed they did not hit the oil infrastructure but military bases, while Iran later reported crude facilities remained intact. Nevertheless, oil prices gapped higher at the opening, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) flirting with $100
Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB), in a unanimous decision, left the interest rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility at 2.15%, 2.4% and 2%, respectively, also meeting the market’s expectations. The monetary policy statement showed that the outlook has become “significantly” more uncertain due to the war in the Middle East, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.

President Christine Lagarde dropped the “good place” when referring to the ECB’s stance on monetary policy, noting policymakers are now “well positioned and well equipped to deal with the development of a major shock,” also noting they are ready for an “agile” response.

The hawkish lean was quite notorious among policymakers worldwide, with interest rate hikes conditioned to the extent of the war. And the war is nowhere near ending. Headlines on Wednesday indicated that the White House is seeking for $200 billion more for the war in Iran, as President Trump wants “vast amounts of ammunition,” partially depleted by the US contribution to Ukraine. Just in the first week, the war cost 11.3 billion. The conflict is now extending into its fourth week.

Currencies barely reacted to central banks’ headlines and announcements, as there were no surprises there.

Quiet data docket, busy policymakers week
There were some quite notorious pieces of data out there. The German ZEW survey showed that Economic Sentiment collapsed in March, with the index down to -0.5 and to -8.5 in the Eurozone from 58.3 and 39.4, respectively, in February. The assessment of the current situation edged lower to -62.9 from the previous -65.9. The report indicates fears about the war's consequences are widespread.

Additionally, the US reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 3.4% YoY in February, while the core annual reading printed at 3.9%, up from 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively, fueling inflation-related concerns ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

The macroeconomic calendar will include the European Union (EU) March Consumer Confidence on Monday, and the March S&P Global preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for the Euro bloc and the US on Tuesday.

A myriad of Fed speakers will be on the wires throughout the upcoming days, while some ECB members are also participating in public events. Their words will be closely followed for hints on the future of monetary policy.
a certainty
From a technical point of view, the weekly chart shows that EUR/USD is neutral-to-bearish. The pair develops below the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.1700 while remaining comfortably above the rising 100- and 200-week SMAs clustered around 1.0900–1.1200, keeping the long-term bearish case limited. The Momentum indicator has turned flat below its midline, signaling softening buying pressure after the earlier advance. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 45, with limited downward strength, hinting at a loss of bullish conviction.

In the daily chart, $EUR /USD is mildly bearish as spot holds below the gently descending 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.1625, which slides under the flatter 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered near 1.1689 and 1.1677, respectively, keeping the broader tone under pressure. The Momentum indicator advances within negative levels, while the RSI indicator turned south at around 42, all of which reflects easing selling pressure but remains far from suggesting an upcoming advance.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day SMA near 1.1625, with a break above exposing the longer moving averages around 1.1680. Further advances seem unlikely at this point and the area should cap advances to maintain the bearish trend in place. On the downside, immediate support sits at the recent low around 1.1411, where prior price rejection aligns with the RSI rebound and could attract dip buyers. A decisive drop below 1.1400 would reopen the downside and extend the prevailing bearish phase, with investors then aiming for a test of 1.1300, the next psychological threshold.
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