Some people think we are in a bullish environment. They are wrong, imo.

I'm seeing a LOT of signs pointing to a weak economy, which is a bad environment for risk assets (think: $BTC & stocks). What I'm going to share with you below are CONTRIBUTING factors to why I think BTC will be in a bear market for many more months, IN ADDITION TO the already-valid reasons to expect a Bitcoin bear market cycle. These charts COMPOUND my conviction of a bear market through much of the rest of this year.

• CHART 1:
$DXY (U.S. relative dollar strength) is preparing for a breakout. This may sound good, but it is another nail in the coffin for risk assets, which are inversely correlated.


• CHART 2:
Oil price spike due to war situation.



• CHART 3:
$FCG (First Trust Natural Gas breakout)
This is another, confirming reason to read the oil problem as a *LONG TERM* condition" (Credit: @riskhodler)



• CHART 4:
The Fed Funds Rate remains elevated and is forecasted to not drop meaningfully anytime soon.

Until the Fed Funds Rate returns to near zero and the Unemployment Rate stops rising, the risk of a crash is not over. (See my prior videos/posts on the pattern of the Inverted Yield Curve, raised Fed Funds Rate, Unemployment pattern).

You will see this forecast doesn't actually ever show a large drop. We will get a large drop. I would bet on it. It will happen when the markets crack and we get a recession. This is when the Fed will rapidly drop the Fed Funds Rate. Thus, it's not priced in because the Fed always acts too late. They are reactionary.

• CHART 5:
S&P 500 rolling over; other major indices rolling over.

• CHART 6:
The Unemployment Rate continues to climb. I believe it will soon reach escape velocity, and it will accelerate (go parabolic), at which time it will coincide with a future stock/risk asset crash. Until the Fed Funds Rate is back near zero we cannot rule this pattern out. This is very important to remember.

TL;DR: The macro economic environment is NOT bullish, despite what the hopium peddlers say. As a rebuttal to one example I hear often: Strategy's $STRC cannot outweight all of these factors.


This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and high risk. Do your own research.

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