⚠️ Key Events This Week
The week is centered around US labor and consumer data. At the same time, the main driver remains the Iran conflict, now in its fourth week. Oil prices are already pushing higher and feeding into inflation and sentiment, which puts the Fed in a difficult position between rising prices and slowing growth
🔴 Monday
● Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Markets will watch for any shift in tone. With oil rising and uncertainty elevated, Powell’s comments on inflation and policy path can move rates and the dollar.
🟡 Tuesday
● March Consumer Confidence
● February JOLTS Job Openings
Confidence reflects how consumers react to higher energy prices. JOLTS shows labor demand. Together they give a read on whether the economy is holding up or starting to slow.
🔴 Wednesday
● March ADP Nonfarm Employment
● March Retail Sales
ADP gives an early signal ahead of the official jobs report. Retail sales show real consumer spending, which is key as higher fuel costs start to pressure demand.
🟡 Thursday
● Initial Jobless Claims
A fresh read on the labor market. Rising claims point to cooling conditions, while stable data supports continued strength in employment.
🔴 Friday
● March Jobs Report
The main macro release of the week. This will confirm whether the labor market is weakening or still holding. It directly impacts Fed expectations and market direction.
Main focus: Friday’s jobs report and Iran headlines, with oil driving the macro backdrop.
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