Markets are currently reflecting around a 33% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before January 2027, while expectations for rate cuts in the near term remain limited.

This shift is being linked to inflation concerns, particularly in relation to potential global energy pressures.

In general, tighter monetary conditions can influence risk assets like crypto, as liquidity and sentiment tend to adjust accordingly.

At the same time, there is ongoing discussion around future policy direction, especially with potential changes in leadership that could bring a different approach to interest rates.

Because of this, the current environment presents a mix of scenarios, where both tightening and easing outcomes remain possible depending on how macro conditions evolve.

I think this is an important period to observe, as macro developments may play a larger role in shaping market behavior in the coming months.
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